1904 HEARTLAND THEORY HALFORD MACKINDER

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The Geographical Pivot of History

H. J. Mackinder

The Geographical Journal Vol. 23, No. 4 (Apr., 1904), 421-437.

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The

Geographical Journal.

No. 4. APEIL, 1904. Vol. XXIII.

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.*

By H. J. MACKINDER, M.A., Eeader in Geography in the University of
Oxford ; Director of the London School of Economics and Political Science.

When historians in the remote future come to look back on the group
of centuries through which we are now passing, and see them fore-
shortened, as we to-day see the Egyptian dynasties, it may well be that
they will describe the last 400 years as the Columbian epoch, and will say
that it ended soon after the year 1900. Of late it has been a common-
place to speak of geographical exploration as nearly over, and it is recog-
nized that geography must be diverted to the purpose of intensive survey
and philosophic synthesis. In 400 years the outline of the map of the
world has been completed with approximate accuracy, and even in the
polar regions the voyages of Nansen and Scott have very narrowly
reduced the last possibility of dramatic discoveries. But the opening
of the twentieth century is appropriate as the end of a great historic
epoch, not merely on account of this achievement, great though it be.
The missionary, the conqueror, the farmer, the miner, and, of late, the
engineer, have followed so closely in the traveller's footsteps that the
world, in its remoter borders, has hardly been revealed before we must
chronicle its virtually complete political appropriation. In Europe,
North America, South America, Africa, and Australasia there is
scarcely a region left for the pegging out of a claim of ownership,
unless as the result of a war between civilized or half-civilized powers.
Even in Asia we are probably witnessing the last moves of the game
first played by the horsemen of Yermak the Cossack and the shipmen
of Vasco da Gama. Broadly speaking, we may contrast the Columbian
epoch with the age which preceded it, by describing its essential

* Bead at the Eoyal Geographical Society, January 25, 1904.
No. IV.— April, 1904.] 2 P

422

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

characteristic as the expansion of Europe against almost negligible
resistances, whereas mediaeval Christendom was pent into a narrow
region and threatened "by external barbarism. From the present time
forth, in the post-Columbian age, we shall again have to deal with a
closed political system, and none the less that it will be one of world-
wide scope. Every explosion of social forces, instead of being dissipated
in a surrounding circuit of unknown space and barbaric chaos, will be
sharply re-echoed from the far side of the globe, and weak elements
in the political and economic organism of the world will be shattered
in consequence. There is a vast difference of effect in the fall of a
shell into an earthwork and its fall amid the closed spaces and rigid
structures of a great building or ship. Probably some half-conscious-
ness of this fact is at last diverting much of the attention of statesmen
in all parts of the world from territorial expansion to the struggle for
relative efficiency.

It appears to me, therefore, that in the present decade we are for the
first time in a position to attempt, with some degree of completeness,
a correlation between the larger geographical and the larger historical
generalizations. For the first time we can perceive something of the real
proportion of features and events on the stage of the whole world, and
may seek a formula which shall express certain aspects, at any rate,
of geographical causation in universal history. If we are fortunate, that
formula should have a practical value as setting into perspective some
of the competing forces in current international politics. The familiar
phrase about the westward march of empire is an empirical and frag-
mentary attempt of the kind. I propose this evening describing those
physical features of the world which I believe to have been most coercive
of human action, and presenting some of the chief phases of history as
organically connected with them, even in the ages when they were
unknown to geography. My aim will not be to discuss the influence of
this or that kind of feature, or yet to make a study in regional geo-
graphy, but rather to exhibit human history as part of the life of the
world organism. I recognize that I can only arrive at one aspect of
the truth, and I have no wish to stray into excessive materialism. Man
and not nature initiates, but nature in large measure controls. My
concern is with the general physical control, rather than the causes of
universal history. It is obvious that only a first approximation to
truth can be hoped for, I shall be humble to my critics.

The, late Prof. Freeman held that the only history which counts
is that of the Mediterranean and European races. In a sense, of course,
this is true, for it is among these races that have originated the ideas
which have rendered the inheritors of Greece and Eome dominant
throughout the world. In another and very important sense, however,
such a limitation has a cramping effect upon thought. The ideas which
go to form a nation, as opposed to a mere crowd of human animals,

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

423

have usually been accepted under the pressure of a common tribu-
lation, and under a common necessity of resistance to external force.
The idea of England was beaten into the Heptarchy by Danish and
Norman conquerors ; the idea of France was forced upon competing
Franks, Goths, and Bomans by the Huns at Chalons, and in the
Hundred Years' War with England ; the idea of Christendom was born
of the Eoman persecutions, and matured by the Crusades ; the idea of the
United States was accepted, and local colonial patriotism sunk, only in
the long War of Independence ; the idea of the German Empire was
reluctantly adopted in South Germany only after a struggle against
France in comradeship with North Germany. What I may describe as
the literary conception of history, by concentrating attention upon ideas
and upon the civilization which is their outcome, is apt to lose sight of
the more elemental movements whose pressure is commonly the exciting
cause of the efforts in which great ideas are nourished. A repellent
personality performs a valuable social function in uniting his enemies,
and it was under the pressure of external barbarism that Europe
achieved her civilization. I ask you, therefore, for a moment to look
upon Europe and European history as subordinate to Asia and Asiatic
history, for European civilization is, in a very real sense, the outcome of
the secular struggle against Asiatic invasion.

The most remarkable contrast in the political map of modern
Europe is that presented by the vast area of Eussia occupying half
the Continent and the group of smaller territories tenanted by the
Western Powers. From a physical point of view, there is, of course,
a like contrast between the unbroken lowland of the east and the
rich complex of mountains and valleys, islands and peninsulas, which
together form the remainder of this part of the world. At first sight
it would appear that in these familiar facts we have a correlation
between natural environment and political organization so obvious as
hardly to be worthy of description, especially when we note that
throughout the Eussian plain a cold winter is opposed to a hot summer,
and the conditions of human existence thus rendered additionally
uniform. Yet a series of historical maps, such as that contained in
the Oxford Atlas, will reveal the fact that not merely is the rough
coincidence of European Eussia with the Eastern Plain of Europe a
matter of the last hundred years or so, but that in all earlier time
there was persistent re-assertion of quite another tendency in the
political grouping. Two groups of states usually divided the country
into northern and southern political systems. The fact is that
the orographical map does not express the particular physical contrast
which has until very lately controlled human movement and settlement
in Eussia. When the screen of winter snow fades northward off the
vast face of the plain, it is followed by rains whose maximum occurs
in May and June beside the Black sea, but near the Baltic and White

2f2

424

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

seas is deferred to July and August. In the south the later summer
is a period of drought. As a consequence of this climatic regime, the
north and north-west were forest broken only by marshes, whereas
the south and south-east were a boundless grassy steppe, with trees
only along the rivers. The line separating the two regions ran
diagonally north-eastward from the northern end of the Carpathians

Fig- 1

EASTERN EUROPE BEFORE THE 19™ CENTURY,

Rafter drude in berghaus1 physical atlas)

to a point in the Ural range nearer to its southern than to its northern
extremity. Moscow lies a little to north of this line, or, in other words,
on the forest side of it. Outside Euseia the boundary of the great forest
ran westward almost exactly through the centre of the European
isthmus, which is 800 miles across be twee n the Baltic and the Black
seas. Beyond this, in Peninsular Europe, the woods spread on through
the plains of Germany in the north, while the steppe lands in the south

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

425

turned the great Transylvanian bastion of the Carpathians, and extended
up the Danube, through what are now the cornfields of Eonmania, to the
Iron Gates. A detached area of steppes, known locally as Pusstas,
now largely cultivated, occupied the plain of Hungary, ingirt by the
forested rim of Carpathian and Alpine mountains. In all the west of
Russia, save in the far north, the clearing of the forests, the drainage of

fig- z

Darbishire&Stanford.Ltd., The Oxford Ceogf Institute.

POLITICAL DIVISIONS OF EASTERN EUROPE
AT THE TIME OF THE 3R.° CRUSADE,

(AFTER THE OXFORD HISTORICAL ATLAS.)

the marshes, and the tillage of the steppes have recently averaged the
character of the landscape, and in large measure obliterated a distinction
which was formerly very coercive of humanity.

The earlier Kussia and Poland were established wholly in the glades
of the forest. Through the steppe on the other hand there came from
the unknown recesses of Asia, by the gateway between the Ural moun-
tains and the Caspian sea, in all the centuries from the fifth to the

426

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

sixteenth, a remarkable succession of Turanian nomadic peoples —
Huns, Avars, Bulgarians, Magyars, Khazars, Patzinaks, Cumans,
Mongols, Kalmuks. Under Attila the Huns established themselves
in the midst of the Pusstas, in the uttermost Danubian outlier of
the steppes, and thence dealt blows northward, westward, and south-
ward against the settled peoples of Europe. A large part of modern

Darbishire&Stanford Ltd. The Oxford Geog! Institute

POLITICAL DIVISIONS OF EASTERN EUROPE
AT THE ACCESSION OF CHARLES V.

(AFTER THE OXFORD HISTORICAL ATLAS.)

history might be written as a commentary upon the changes directly
or indirectly ensuing from these raids. The Angles and Saxons, it
is quite possible, were then driven to cross the seas to found England
in Britain. The Franks, the Goths, and the Eoman provincials were
compelled, for the first time, to stand shoulder to shoulder on the
battlefield of Chalons, making common cause against the Asiatics,
who were unconsciously; welding together modern France. Venice

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

427

was founded from the destruction of Aquileia and Padua ; and even the
Papacy owed a decisive prestige to the successful mediation of Pope
Leo with Attila at Milan. Such was the harvest of results produced
by a cloud of ruthless and idealess horsemen sweeping over the un-
impeded plain — a blow, as it were, from the great Asiatic hammer
striking freely through the vacant space. The Huns were followed
by the Avars. It was for a marchland against these that Austria
was founded, and Vienna fortified, as the result of the campaigns
of Charlemagne. The Magyar came next, and by incessant raiding
from his steppe base in Hungary increased the significance of the
Austrian outpost, so drawing the political focus of Germany east-
ward to the margin of the realm. The Bulgarian established a ruling
caste south of the Danube, and has left his name upon the map,
although his language has yielded to that of his^Slavonic subjects.
Perhaps the longest and most effective occupation of the Russian
steppe proper was that of the Khazars, who were contemporaries
of the great Saracen movement : the Arab geographers knew the
Caspian as the Khazar sea. In the end, however, new hordes arrived
from Mongolia, and for two centuries Russia in the northern forest
was held tributary to the Mongol Khans of Kipchak, or " the Steppe,"
and Russian development was thus delayed and biassed at a time when
the remainder of Europe was rapidly advancing.

It should be noted that the rivers running from the Forest to the
Black and Caspian seas cross the whole breadth of the steppe-land path
of the nomads, and that from time to time there were transient move-
ments along their courses at right angles to the movement of the
horsemen. Thus the missionaries of Greek Christianity ascended the
Dnieper to Kief, just as beforehand the Norse Varangians had descended
the same river on their way to Constantinople. Still earlier, the
Teutonic Goths appear for a moment upon the Dniester, having crossed
Europe from the shores of the Baltic in the same south-eastward
direction. But these are passing episodes which do not invalidate the
broader generalization. For a thousand years a series of horse-riding
peoples emerged from Asia through the broad interval between the
Ural mountains and the Caspian sea, rode through the open spaces of
southern Russia, and struck home into Hungary in the very heart of
the European peninsula, shaping by the necessity of opposing them the
history of each of the great peoples around— the Russians, the Germans,
the French, the Italians, and the Byzantine Greeks. That they stimu-
lated healthy aDd powerful reaction, instead of crushing opposition
under a widespread despotism, was due to the fact that the mobility of
their power was conditioned by the steppes, and necessarily ceased in
the surrounding forests and mountains.

A rival mobility of power was that of the Vikings in their boats.
Descending from Scandinavia both upon the northern and the southern

428

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

shores of Europe, they penetrated inland by the river ways. But the
scope of their action was limited, for, broadly speaking, their power
was effective only in the neighbourhood of the water. Thus the settled
peoples of .Europe lay gripped between two pressures — that of the
Asiatic nomads from the east, and on the other three sides that of the
pirates from the sea. From its very nature neither pressure was over-
whelming, and both therefore were stimulative. It is noteworthy that
the formative influence of the Scandinavians was second only in sig-
nificance to that of the nomads, for under their attack both England
and France made long moves towards unity, while the unity of Italy
was broken by them. In earlier times, Eome had mobilized the power
of her settled peoples by means of her roads, but the Roman roads had
fallen into decay, and were not replaced until the eighteenth century.

It is likely that even the Hunnish invasion was by no means the
first of the Asiatic series. The Scythians of the Homeric and Hero-
dotian accounts, drinking the milk of mares, obviously practised the
same arts of life, and were probably of the same race as the later
inhabitants of the steppe. The Celtic element in the river-names Don,
Dowetz, Dneiper, Dneister, and Danube may possibly betoken the
passage of peoples of similar habits, though not of identical race, but
it is not unlikely that the Celts came merely from the northern forests,
like the Goths and Varangians of a later time. The great wedge of
population, however, which the anthropologists characterize as Brachy-
Cephalic, driven westward from Bra chy- Cephalic Asia through Central
Europe into France, is apparently intrusive between the northern,
western, and southern Dolico-Cephalic populations, and may very
probably have been derived from Asia.*

The full meaning of Asiatic influence upon Europe is not, however,
discernible until we come to the Mongol invasions of the fifteenth
century ; but before we analyze the essential facts concerning these, it
is desirable to shift our geographical view-point from Europe, so that
we may consider the Old World in its entirety. It is obvious that,
since the rainfall is derived from the sea, the heart of the greatest
land-mass is likely to be relatively dry. We are not, therefore, sur-
prised to find that two- thirds of all the world's population is concen-
trated in relatively small areas along the margins of the great continent —
in Europe, beside the Atlantic ocean; in the Indies and China, beside the
Indian and Pacific oceans. A vast belt of almost uninhabited, because
practically rainless, land extends as the Sahara completely across
Northern Africa into Arabia. Central and Southern Africa were almost
as completely severed from Europe and Asia throughout the greater
part of history as were the Americas and Australia. In fact, the
southern boundary of Europe was and is the Sahara rather than the

* See 'The Races of Europe,' by Prof. W. Z. Ripley (Kegan Paul, 1900).

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY,

429

Mediterranean, for it is the desert which divides the black man from
the white. The continuous land-mass of Euro- Asia thus included
between the ocean and the desert measures 21,000,000 square miles,
or half of all the land on the globe, if we exclude from reckoning the
deserts of Sahara and Arabia. There are many detached deserts scat-
tered through Asia, from Syria and Persia north-eastward to Manchuria,
but no such continuous vacancy as to be comparable with the Sahara.
On the other hand, Euro-Asia is characterized by a very remarkable
distribution of river drainage. Throughout an immense portion of
the centre and north, the rivers have been practically useless for
purposes of human communication with the outer world. The Volga,
the Oxus, and the Jaxartes drain into salt lakes ; the Obi, the Yenesei,
and the Lena into the frozen ocean of the north. These are six of the

Darbishire & Stanford Ltd. The Oxford Geog' Institute.

CONTINENTAL AND ARCTIC DRAINAGE

EQUAL AREA PROJECTION

greatest rivers in the world. There are many smaller but still con-
siderable streams in the same area, such as the Tarim and the Helmund,
which similarly fail to reach the ocean. Thus the core of Euro- Asia,
although mottled with desert patches, is on the whole a steppe-land
supplying a wide-spread if often scanty pasture, and there are not a
few river- fed oases in it, but it is wholly unpenetrated by waterways
from the ocean. In other words, we have in this immense area all
the conditions for the maintenance of a sparse, but in the aggregate
considerable, population of horse-riding and camel-riding nomads. Their
realm is limited northward by a broad belt of sub-arctic forest and
marsh, wherein the climate is too rigorous, except at the eastern and
western extremities, for the development of agricultural settlements. In
the east the forests extend southward to the Pacific coast in the Amur

430

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

land and Manchuria. Similarly in the west, in prehistoric Europe, forest
was the predominant vegetation. Thus framed in to the north-east,
north, and north-west, the steppes spread continuously for 4000 miles
from the Pusstas of Hungary to the Little Gobi of Manchuria, and,
except in their westernmost extremity, they are untraversed by rivers
draining to an accessible ocean, for we may neglect the very recent
efforts to trade to the mouths of the Obi and Yenisei. In Europe,
Western Siberia, and Western Turkestan the steppe lands lie low, in
some places below the level of the sea. Further to east, in Mongolia,
they extend over plateaux; but the passage from the one level to the
other, over the naked, unscarped lower ranges of the arid heart-land,
presents little difficulty.

The hordes which ultimately fell upon Europe in the middle of the
fourteenth century gathered their first force 3000 miles away on the
high steppes of Mongolia. The havoc wrought for a few years in Poland,
Silesia, Moravia, Hungary, Croatia, and Servia was, however, but the
remotest and the most transient result of the great stirring of the
nomads of the East associated with the name of Ghenghiz Khan.
While the Golden Horde occupied the steppe of Kipchak, from the
Sea of Aral, through the interval between the Ural range and the
Caspian, to the foot of the Carpathians, another horde, descending
south-westward between the Caspian sea and the Hindu Kush into
Persia, Mesopotamia, and even into Syria, founded the domain of the
Ilkhan. A third subsequently struck into Northern China, conquering
Cathay. India and Mangi, or Southern China, were for a time shel-
tered by the incomparable barrier of Tibet, to whose efficacy there is,
perhaps, nothing similar in the world, unless it be the Sahara desert
and the polar ice. But at a later time, in the days of Marco Polo in
the case of Mangi, in those of Tamerlane in the case of India, the
obstacle was circumvented. Thus it happened that in this typical and
well-recorded instance, all the settled margins of the Old World sooner
or later felt the expansive force of mobile power originating in the
steppe. Russia, Persia, India, and China were either made tributary,
or received Mongol dynasties. Even the incipient power of the Turks
in Asia Minor was struck down for half a century.

As in the case of Europe, so in other marginal lands of Euro- Asia
there are records of earlier invasions. China had more than once to
submit to conquest from the north; India several times to conquest
from the north-west. In the case of Persia, however, at least one of
the earlier descents has a special significance in the history of Western
civilization. Three or four centuries before the Mongols, the Seljuk
Turks, emerging from Central Asia, overran by this path an immense
area of the land, which we may describe as of the five seas— Caspian,
Black, Mediterranean, Ked, and Persian. They established themselves
at Kerman, at Hamadan, and in Asia Minor, and they overthrew the

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

431

Saracen dominion of Bagdad and Damascus. It was ostensibly to punish
their treatment of the Christian pilgrims at Jerusalem that Christen-
dom undertook the great series of campaigns known collectively as the
Crusades. Although these failed in their immediate objects, they so
stirred and united Europe tbat we may count them as the beginning
of modern history — another striking instance of European advance
stimulated by the necessity of reacting against pressure from the heart
of Asia.

The conception of Euro- Asia to which we thus attain is that of a
continuous land, ice-girt in the north, water-girt elsewhere, measuring
21 million square miles, or more than three times the area of North
America, whose centre and north, measuring some 9 million square
miles, or more than twice the area of Europe, have no available
water-ways to the ocean, but, on the other hand, except in the subarctic
forest, are very generally favourable to the mobility of horsemen and
camelmen. To east, south, and west of this heart-land are marginal
regions, ranged in a vast crescent, accessible to shipmen. According
to physical conformation, these regions are four in number, and it is not
a little remarkable that in a general way they respectively coincide
with the spheres of the four great religions — Buddhism, Brahminism,
Mahometanism, and Christianity. The first two are the monsoon lands,
turned the one towards the Pacific, and the other towards the Indian
ocean. The fourth is Europe, watered by the Atlantic rains from the
west. These three together, measuring less than 7 million square miles,
have more than 1000 million people, or two-thirds of the world population.
The third, coinciding with the land of the Five Seas, or, as it is more
often described, the Nearer East, is in large measure deprived of moisture
by the proximity of Africa, and, except in the oases, is therefore
thinly peopled. In some degree it partakes of the characteristics both
of the marginal belt and of the central area of Euro-Asia. It is mainly
devoid of forest, is patched with desert, and is therefore suitable for
the operations of the nomad. Dominantly, however, it is marginal, for
sea-gulfs and oceanic rivers lay it open to sea-power, and permit of the
exercise of such power from it. As a consequence, periodically throughout
history, we have here had empires belonging essentially to the marginal
series, based on the agricultural populations of the great oases of
Babylonia and Egypt, and in free water-communication with the civilized
worlds of the Mediterranean and the Indies. But, as we should expect,
these empires have been subject to an unparalleled series of revolutions,
some due to Scythian, Turkish, and Mongol raids from Central Asia!
others to the effort of the Mediterranean peoples to conquer the overland
ways from the western to the eastern ocean. Here is the weakest spot
in the girdle of early civilizations, for the isthmus of Suez divided sea-
power into Eastern and Western, and the arid wastes of Persia advancing
from Central Asia to the Persian gulf gave constant opportunity for

432

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

nomad-power to strike home to the ocean edge, dividing India and
China, on the one hand, from the Mediterranean world on the other.
Whenever the Babylonian, the Syrian, and the Egyptian oases were
weakly held, the steppe-peoples could treat the open tablelands of
Iran and Asia Minor as forward posts whence to strike through the
Punjab into India, through Syria into Egypt, and over the broken
bridge of the Bosphorus and Dardanelles into Hungary. Yienna stood
in the gateway of Inner Europe, withstanding the nomadic raids, both
those which came by the direct road through the Eussian steppe, and
those which came by the loop way to south of the Black and Caspian
seas.

Here we have illustrated the essential difference between the Saracen
and the Turkish controls of the Nearer East. The Saracens were a
branch of the Semitic race, essentially peoples of the Euphrates and
Nile and of the smaller oases of Lower Asia. They created a great
empire by availing themselves of the two mobilities permitted by their
land — that of the horse and camel on the one hand, that of the ship
on the other. At different times their fleets controlled both the Mediter-
ranean as far as Spain, and the Indian ocean to the Malay islands.
From their strategically central position between the eastern and
western oceans, they attempted the conquest of all the marginal lands
of the Old World, imitating Alexander and anticipating Napoleon.
They could even threaten the steppe land. Wholly distinct from
Arabia as from Europe, India, and China were the Turanian pagans
from the closed heart of Asia, the Turks who destroyed the Saracen
civilization.

Mobility upon the ocean is the natural rival of horse and camel
mobility in the heart of the continent. It was upon navigation of
oceanic rivers that was based the Potamic stage of civilization, that of
China on the Yangtse, that of India on the Ganges, that of Babylonia
on the Euphrates, that of Egypt on the Nile. It was essentially upon
the navigation of the Mediterranean that was based what has been
described as the Thalassic stage of civilization, that of the Greeks and
Eomans. The Saracens and the Vikings held sway by navigation of
the oceanic coasts.

The all-important result of the discovery of the Cape road to the
Indies was to connect the western and eastern coastal navigations of Euro-
Asia, even though by a circuitous route, and thus in some measure to
neutralize the strategical advantage of the central position of the steppe-
nomads by pressing upon them in rear. The revolution commenced by
the great mariners of the Columbian generation endowed Christendom
with the widest possible mobility of power, short of a winged mobility.
The one and continuous ocean enveloping the divided and insular lands
is, of course, the geographical condition of ultimate unity in the command
of the sea, and of the whole theory of modern naval strategy and policy

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

433

as expounded by such writers as Captain Mahan and: Mr. Spencer Wilkin-
son. The broad political effect was to reverse the relations of Europe
and Asia, for whereas in the Middle Ages Europe was caged between
an impassable desert to south, an unknown ocean to west, and icy or
forested wastes to north and north-east, and in the east and south-
east was constantly threatened by the superior mobility of the horsemen
and camelmen, she now emerged upon the world, multiplying more than
thirty -fold the sea surface and coastal lands to which she had access, and
wrapping her influence round the Euro-Asiatic land-power which had
hitherto threatened her very existence. New Europes were created in the
vacant lands discovered in the midst of the waters, and what Britain
and Scandinavia were to Europe in the earlier time, that have America
and Australia, and in some measure even Trans-Saharan Africa, now
become to Euro- Asia. Britain, Canada, the United States, South Africa,
Australia, and Japan are now a ring of outer and insular bases for
sea-power and commerce, inaccessible to the land-power of Euro- Asia.

But the land power still remains, and recent events have again in-
creased its significance. While the maritime peoples of Western Europe
have covered the ocean with their fleets, settled the outer continents,
and in varying degree made tributary the oceanic margins of Asia,
Eussia has organized the Cossacks, and, emerging from her northern
forests, has policed the steppe by setting her own nomads to meet the
Tartar nomads. The Tudor century, which saw the expansion of
Western Europe over the sea, also saw Eussian power carried from
Moscow through Siberia. The eastward swoop of the horsemen across
Asia was an event almost as pregnant with political consequences as was
the rounding of the Cape, although the two movements long remained
apart.

It is probably one of the most striking coincidences of history that
the seaward and the landward expansion of Europe should, in a sense,
continue the ancient opposition between Eoman and Greek. Few great
failures have had more far-reaching consequences than the failure of
Eome to Latinize the Greek. The Teuton was civilized and Christianized
by the Eoman, the Slav in the main by the Greek. It is the Eomano-
Teuton who in later times embarked upon the ocean ; it was the Graeco-
Slav who rode over the steppes, conquering the Turanian. Thus the
modern land-power differs from the sea-power no less in the source of
its ideals than in the material conditions of its mobility.*

In the wake of the Cossack, Eussia has safely emerged from her
former seclusion in the northern forests. Perhaps the change of greatest

* This statement was criticized in the discussion which followed the reading of the
paper. On reconsidering the paragraph, I still think it substantially correct. Even the
Byzantine Greek would have been other than he was had Eome completed the subjugation
of the ancient Greek. No doubt the ideals spoken of were Byzantine rather than
Hellenic, but they were not Koman, which is the point.

434

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

intrinsic importance which took place in Europe in the last century was
the southward migration of the Kussian peasants, so that, whereas agri-
cultural settlements formerly ended at the forest boundary, the centre of
the population of all European Eussia now lies to south of that boundary,
in the midst of the wheat-fields which have replaced the more western
steppes. Odessa has here risen to importance with the rapidity of an
American city.

A generation ago steam and the Suez canal appeared to have
increased the mobility of sea-power relatively to land-power. Eailways
acted chiefly as feeders to ocean-going commerce. But trans-conti-
nental railways are now transmuting the conditions of land-power, and
nowhere can they have such effect as in the closed heart-land of Euro-
Asia, in vast areas of which neither timber nor accessible stone was
available for road-making. Eailways work the greater 'wonders in the
steppe, because they directly replace horse and camel mobility, the road
stage of development having here been omitted.

In the matter of commerce it must not be forgotten that ocean-going
traffic, however relatively cheap, usually involves the fourfold handling
of goods — at the factory of origin, at the export wharf, at the import
wharf, and at the inland warehouse for retail distribution ; whereas the
continental railway truck may run direct from the exporting factory
into the importing warehouse. Thus marginal ocean- fed commerce
tends, other things being equal, to form a zone of penetration round
the continents, whose inner limit is roughly marked by the line along
which the cost of four handlings, the oceanic freight, and the railway
freight from the neighbouring coast, is equivalent to the cost of two
handlings and the continental railway freight. English and German
coals are said to compete on such terms midway through Lombardy.

The Eussian railways have a clear run of 6000 miles from
Wirballen in the west to Vladivostok in the east. The Eussian army
in Manchuria is as significant evidence of mobile land-power as the
British army in South Africa was of sea-power. True, that the Trans-
Siberian railway is still a single and precarious line of communication,
but the century will not be old before all Asia is covered with railways.
The spaces within the Eussian Empire and Mongolia are so vast, and
their potentialities in population, wheat, cotton, fuel, and metals so
incalculably great, that it is inevitable that a vast economic world,
more or less apart, will there develop inaccessible to oceanic commerce.

As we consider this rapid review of the broader currents of history ,
does not a certain persistence of geographical relationship become
evident ? Is not the pivot region of the world's politics that vast area
of Euro- Asia which is inaccessible to ships, but in antiquity lay open
to the horse-riding nomads, and is to-day about to be covered with a
network of railways? There have been and are here the conditions
of a mobility of military and economic power of a far-reaching and yet

436

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY.

limited character. Eussia replaces the Mongol Empire. Her pressure
on Finland, on Scandinavia, on Poland, on Turkey, on Persia, on India,
and on China, replaces the centrifugal raids of the steppemen. In the
world at large she occupies the central strategical position held by-
Germany in Europe. She can strike on all sides and be struck from all
sides, save the north. The full development of her modern railway
mobility is merely a matter of time. Nor is it likely that any possible
social revolution will alter her essential relations to the great geo-
graphical limits of her existence. Wisely recognizing the fundamental
limits of her power, her rulers have parted with Alaska ; for it is as
much a law of policy for Eussia to own nothing over seas as for Britain
to be supreme on the ocean.

Outside the pivot area, in a great inner crescent, are Germany,
Austria, Turkey, India, and China, and in an outer crescent, Britain,
South Africa, Australia, the United States, Canada, and Japan. In the
present condition of the balance of power, the pivot state, Eussia, is
not equivalent to the peripheral states, and there is room for an equi-
poise in France. The United States has recently become an eastern
power, affecting the European balance not directly, but through Eussia,
and she will construct the Panama canal to make her Mississippi and
Atlantic resources available in the Pacific. From this point of view
the real divide between east and west is to be found in the Atlantic
ocean.

The oversetting of the balance of power in favour of the pivot state,
resulting in its expansion over the marginal lands of Euro- Asia, would
permit of the use of vast continental resources for fleet-building, and
the empire of the world would then be in sight. This might happen if
Germany were to ally herself with Eussia. The threat of such an event
should, therefore, throw France into alliance with the over-sea powers,
and France, Italy, Egypt, India, and Corea would become so many
bridge heads where the outside navies would support armies to compel
the pivot allies to deploy land forces and prevent them from concentrating
their whole strength on fleets. On a smaller scale that was what
Wellington accomplished from his sea-base at Torres Vedras in the
Peninsular War. May not this in the end prove to be the strategical
function of India in the British Imperial system ? Is not this the idea
underlying Mr. Amery's conception that the British military front
stretches from the Cape through India to Japan ?

The development of the vast potentialities of South America might
have a decisive influence upon the system. They might strengthen the
United States, or, on the other hand, if Germany were to challenge the
Monroe doctrine successfully, they might detach Berlin from what I
may perhaps describe as a pivot policy. The particular combinations
of power brought into balance are not material ; my contention is that
from a geographical point of view they are likely to rotate round the

THE GEOGRAPHICAL PIVOT OF HISTORY— DISCUSSION.

437

pivot state, which is always likely to be great, but with limited mobility
as compared with the surrounding marginal and insular powers.

I have spoken as a geographer. The actual balance of political
power at any given time is, of course, the product, on the one hand, of
geographical conditions, both economic and strategic, and, on the other
hand, of the relative number, virility, equipment, and organization of
the competing peoples. In proportion as these quantities are accurately
estimated are we likely to adjust differences without the crude resort to
arms. And the geographical quantities in the calculation are more
measurable and more nearly constant than the human. Hence we should
expect to find our formula apply equally to past history and to present
politics. The social movements of all times have played around essen-
tially the game physical features, for I doubt whether the progressive
desiccation of Asia and Africa, even if proved, has in historical times
vitally altered the human environment. The westward march of empire
appears to me to have been a short rotation of marginal power round
the south-western and western edge of the pivotal area. The Nearer,
Middle, and Far Eastern questions relate to the unstable equilibrium of
inner and outer powers in those parts of the marginal crescent where
local power is, at present, more or less negligible.

In conclusion, it may be well expressly to point out that the sub-
stitution of some new control of the inland area for that of Eussia would
not tend to reduce the geographical significance of the pivot position.
Were the Chinese, for instance, organized by the Japanese, to overthrow
the Eussian Empire and conquer its territory, they might constitute
the yellow peril to the world's freedom just because they would add an
oceanic frontage to the resources of the great continent, an advantage
as yet denied to the Eussian tenant of the pivot region.

Before the reading of the paper, the President said : We are always very glad
when we can induce our friend Mr. Mackinder to address us on any subject, because
all he says to us is sure to he interesting and original and valuable. There is no
necessity for me to introduce so old a friend of the Society to the meeting, and I
will therefore at once ask him to read his paper.

After the reading of the paper, the President said : We hope that Mr. Spencer
Wilkinson will offer some criticism on Mr. Mackinder's paper. Of course, it will
not be possible to avoid geographical politics to a certain extent.

Mr. Spencer Wilkinson : It would occur to me that the most natural thing
and the mcst sincere thing to say at the beginning is to endeavour to express the
great gratitude which, I am sure, every one here feels for one of the most stimu-
lating papers that has been read for a long time. As I was listening to the paper,
I looked with regret on some of the space that is unoccupied here, and I much
regret that a portion of it was not occupied by the members of the Cabinet, for I
gathered that in Mr. Mackinder's paper we have two main doctrines laid down : the
first, which is not altogether new — I think it was foreseen some years back in the last
century — that since the modern improvements of steam navigation the whole of
the world has become one, and has become one political system. I forget the

No. IV.— April, 1904.] 2 g